CompanionnowcastDemo · payment-dark

Nowcast

Built for Stephen Moore · Economist

Combine leading indicators into one forward signal — expansion, caution, or contraction — with every component's contribution visible.

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Forward signal · every component visible

One read from 6 leading indicators

Stress-test the call — load a scenario, then fine-tune any input

The published late-cycle mix — mildly negative across most fronts.

Composite forward signal

Caution

score −0.16 on a −1…+1 scale

← Contraction (−1)CautionExpansion (+1) →

The signals are mixed and near neutral — no clear forward direction. Watch the components that move.

−0.16

Composite score

1 / 6

Components leaning positive

100

Total weight (Σ wᵢ)

Per-component contribution to the score

contribution = (weight ÷ Σ weight) × normalized signal. Bars right of center add to the score, bars left subtract. They sum to −0.16 — the headline regime call, with nothing hidden.

Yield curve

z −0.38 · w 25%

−0.094

Sentiment

z −0.32 · w 14%

−0.045

Housing starts

z −0.29 · w 11%

−0.031

Jobless claims

z −0.16 · w 18%

−0.028

ISM PMI

z −0.10 · w 20%

−0.020

Equity 6m

z +0.50 · w 12%

+0.060

↑ center line = zero contribution (component at its neutral reading)

Sealed-call ledger · SHA-256 hash chain

Open public verify →

nowcast · calls.log

# nowcast · sealed-call ledger

# Seal a read to begin a tamper-evident, hash-chained record of the call.

Illustrative model with seeded readings — not investment advice and not an official forecast. Composite weighting is fully exposed and editable; no hidden index. Live data feeds are out of scope.Read the methodology →

Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: LLC / BBG Academy. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.